PHASE II MARYLAND FAMILY AND MEDICAL LEAVE INSURANCE (FAMLI) PROGRAM

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of expected program claims and administration experience for the Maryland Family and Medical Leave Insurance (FAMLI) program. It studies and projects the expected volumes, costs, and durations of claims by leave types for 2026-2030, and expected employer opt-out and the opt-in of self-employed individuals. Read the Executive Summary.

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Chapter 1 - Estimating Growth of The Program Utilization Rates

In the second stage of Phase II, we are tasked to conduct an analysis of expected program claims and administration experience by studying and providing projections on:

• Expected volume of claims made on the state trust fund by employees employed in the state with predictions on the first year by month or quarter (2026), projections on at least an annual basis for later years (e.g., 2027 – 2030), and projections with break-downs of projected claims by leave type (medical, family care, birth of a child, military exigency)
• Expected cost and duration of claims with details by claim type (medical, family care, birth of a child, military exigency)
• Expected employer opt-out behavior, based on available information and data
• Expected self-employed individual opt-in behavior based on publicly available information from states that have mandated FAMLI benefits, based on available information and data.

Read Chapter 1

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Chapter 2 - Simulation of Claims and Costs using the USDOL Modified Worker PLUS Model

2.1 Simulation Methodology
The expected program claims, costs, and durations are simulated based on the modified Worker Paid Leave Usage Simulation model developed by the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL Worker PLUS). We modified the USDOL Worker PLUS model to comply with the provisions of the Maryland Family and Medical Leave Insurance Program (FAMLI). We used the DOL Family and Medical Leave Act (FMLA) Employee Survey public microdata to train models for individual workers’ leave needs and then draw individual Maryland workers’ characteristics from 2017-2021 five-year American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) to simulate individual Maryland workers’ leave-taking behavior. The modified USDOL Worker PLUS simulation model thus “runs” each sample person from Maryland ACS data to predict his/her probability of taking a leave and the leave length based on the Maryland FAMLI program parameters including eligibility rules and maximum leave length, as well as FMLA-based distributions. The benefit costs are further simulated based on the wage replacement structure, predicted leave length, and individual characteristics from the ACS microdata.

Read Chapter 2.

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